Discourse Analysis

The Rise and Fall of Rearmament Discourse

From Cold War confrontation to moral critique — how UN speeches about military buildup changed from superpower accusations to small-nation advocacy.

Key Statistics

1984
Peak year (303 mentions)
-78%
Decline 1984→1991
Costa Rica
Top voice in 2020s
$2.4T
Global military spend (2023)

75 Years of Rearmament Discourse

Mentions of rearmament, arms race, military buildup, and related terms in UN speeches (1950-2024)

1950
1984 (peak)
2024
Cold War era (1950-1991)Post-Cold War (1992-2024)

Evolution by Decade

DecadeMentions
1950s363
1960s853
1970s1,259
1980s2,248
1990s484
2000s179
2010s158
2020s109

Who Discusses Rearmament?

The speakers changed dramatically. Cold War discourse was dominated by the Eastern Bloc accusing the West. Today, small neutral nations critique global military spending.

1980s: Eastern Bloc Dominated

USSR75
Romania69
Ukrainian SSR68
Byelorussian SSR59
West Germany48
Bulgaria47

Eastern Bloc (8 countries): 373 mentions
Western Bloc (10 countries): 112 mentions

2020s: Small Nations Lead

Costa Rica8
Nepal7
Bolivia5
Holy See4
Cuba4
Kyrgyzstan4

Nations without large militaries now drive the discourse, framing it as a moral and developmental issue.

Historical Timeline

1950s
Early Cold War

The arms race begins in earnest. Soviet delegates warn of Western militarism while the Korean War heightens nuclear anxieties.

Primary SourceUSSR, 1958
"Are unaware of the full danger of the continuing arms race which, like a mountain avalanche, is absorbing material and human resources on an ever-increasing scale and diverting them to the production of means of destruction."

Gromyko frames the arms race as an unstoppable force consuming humanity's resources.

View Full Speech →
1962
Cuban Missile Crisis

The world comes closest to nuclear war. UN speeches reflect existential fear as both superpowers accuse each other of aggressive militarization.

116mentions in 1962 alone
1984
Cold War Peak

Reagan's military buildup triggers the highest-ever rearmament discourse. Eastern Bloc nations dominate the conversation, warning of 'star wars' in space.

303all-time peak mentions
Primary SourceEast Germany, 1984
"The arms race is assuming dimensions which exceed all previously known extremes. As recent developments show, the arms build-up is intended to extend even into outer space. Terms like 'star wars' can give us only a vague idea of the threats to which mankind and the planet earth are exposed."

East Germany articulates the peak Cold War anxiety about weaponizing space.

View Full Speech →
1989-1991
The Great Decline

The Berlin Wall falls and the USSR dissolves. Rearmament discourse collapses by 78% as the 'peace dividend' replaces confrontation.

303
before
66
after
mentions
1984→1991
Primary SourceVenezuela, 1991
"We warned that the arms race would lead the world into an unprecedented critical situation, and that growing military expenditure would create conflicts for the big Powers themselves. Today, one of the great empires, that of the cold war, no longer exists."

Venezuela reflects on the end of an era, noting that warnings about the arms race proved prescient.

View Full Speech →
2000s
The Quiet Years

Terrorism dominates post-9/11 discourse. Rearmament fades to minimal levels as nations focus on counter-terrorism and regional conflicts.

179total for entire decade
2020s
The New Critics

Small, neutral nations emerge as the primary voices critiquing military spending. The framing shifts from strategic competition to moral failure — money spent on arms instead of climate and development.

Primary SourceCosta Rica, 2023
"Almost 15 years ago military spending was slightly over $1 trillion. Ten years later, global military spending has more than doubled, exceeding $2 trillion, despite the fact that Article 26 of the Charter of the United Nations prescribes the pursuit of international peace and security with minimum spending on arms."

Costa Rica, which has no military, invokes the UN Charter to critique global militarization.

View Full Speech →
Additional SourceKyrgyzstan, 2024
"We observe a troubling paradox: global military spending is growing, while least developed and vulnerable states continue to suffer from a lack of resources for their development and survival."

Kyrgyzstan frames military spending as a moral failure that diverts resources from the world's poorest.

View Full Speech →
2024
Post-Ukraine Uptick

Ukraine's invasion triggers modest increase in rearmament discourse, but the conversation remains different from the Cold War — focused on costs and consequences rather than bloc confrontation.

342024 mentions (highest since 1999)
Primary SourceSri Lanka, 2023
"Global military expenditures have risen today to record levels reaching $2.24 trillion. That reflects the strategic trust deficit among the powerful. Key arms control frameworks that were instrumental in maintaining system stability in the past have collapsed."

Sri Lanka connects rising military spending to the breakdown of arms control treaties.

View Full Speech →

The Great Transformation

Rearmament discourse didn't just decline — it migrated. In the Cold War, major powers accused each other of dangerous militarization. Today, small neutral nations critique all major powers for prioritizing weapons over human needs.

The framing shifted from "your country is arming dangerously" to "humanity spends too much on weapons instead of addressing climate change and poverty."

Research Methodology

This analysis uses pattern-matching across 200,000+ speech chunks to identify mentions of rearmament-related terms. Terms tracked include: rearmament, arms race, military buildup, defense spending, military expenditure, militarization, and weapons acquisition.

discourse_tracking.sql
-- Track rearmament discourse over time
SELECT s.year, COUNT(*) as mentions
FROM chunk_topics ct
JOIN chunks c ON ct.chunk_id = c.id
JOIN speeches s ON c.speech_id = s.id
WHERE ct.concept_id = (
  SELECT id FROM concepts
  WHERE name = 'rearmament'
)
GROUP BY s.year ORDER BY s.year;

-- Compare by country bloc
SELECT country_code, SUM(mention_count)
FROM country_decade_positions
WHERE concept_id = 1 AND decade = 1980
GROUP BY country_code
ORDER BY 2 DESC;